Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News from a Non-linear World

Prednášajúci: Giovanni Caggiano (University of Padova)

Miesto a čas konania:  kongresová sála NBS; 11:00 – 13:00 hod.


We estimate non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the United States. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to cumulated revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information of future evolutions of public spending. Preliminary results based on state-dependent (conditionally-linear) impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers are larger in recessions. Our estimates point to short-run multipliers well above unity.

Sprievodné dokumenty:

1. Prezentácia
2. Working Paper (in progress)

O prednášajúcom:

81465529fc39c0971b57d844dd325171 Giovanni Caggiano
University of Padova
osobná webstránka: 

I have obtained post-graduate degrees in Economics from the University of Pavia and the University of York. Before joining the University of Padova, I have held positions at the School of Business and Economics of the University of Exeter and at the Department of Economics of the University of Glasgow. I have also spent research periods at the Ente Luigi Einaudi in Rome, the Bank of England, Queen Mary University of London and Columbia University.

My research interests lie in the area of applied time series econometrics and macroeconomics. My main focus is understanding the role played by nonlinearities in the transmission mechanism of shocks. 

Here you can find a link to my full CV.
Here is a link to my Ideas Repec page.